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Prediction for CME (2013-06-28T01:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-06-28T01:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/402/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-06-30T10:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-06-30T12:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Jun 30 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geospace
...
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin at unsettled to active
levels. A CME which erupted on 28 June between 0129-0250 UTC is
expected to bring minor storm conditions around midday on day one (30
Jun). This activity should be short lived and conditions should begin a
steady decline back to quiet to unsettled levels by midday on day two
(01 Jul) and generally quiet levels by day three (02 Jul).
...
--
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 30-Jul 02 2013
 Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02
00-03UT 4 4 2 
03-06UT 3 4 1 
06-09UT 5 (G1) 3 1 
09-12UT 4 2 1 
12-15UT 3 1 1 
15-18UT 3 1 1 
18-21UT 4 1 1 
21-00UT 4 2 1 
--
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/

Lead Time: 40.95 hour(s)
Difference: -1.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-06-28T17:43Z

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